I have learned that the Cowboys, as predicted here and in other spaces, aim to be modest players in free agency. My understanding is that they have one big-ticket target in mind and perhaps a couple of smaller deals on the drawing board.
Don’t be surprised to see Dallas address the free-safety cavity this coming week, leaving the team with more latitude to draft the best player available come April.
More as I learn it.
Espn.com’s K.C. Joyner serves up some last-minute free agent evaluations to whet your appetite, as we sit around 30 hours from the opening bell.
I e-mailed K.C. some questions about the usual suspects and a lower-level, Kyler Kosier-type player. Here’s what he had to say:
R.V. — Let’s discuss Damon Huard. In your opinion, might Huard get a starting offer? If he doesn’t, can you say something about the strengths and weaknesses of his game?
K.C.J. — Not sure if you still want to use this now that Huard’s has re-signed with KC, but here goes. Huard’s strengths are his low bad decision percentages and his medium pass YPA. His weaknesses are deep pass YPA and his age/recent injury spate, although the deep pass YPA may have as much to do with the KC WRs as it does Huard.
R.V. — About Kris Deilman: is he an outstanding guard, very good guard or simply a good guard? How does he compare to Kyle Kosier, whom the Cowboys signed last year?
K.C.J. — I hesitate to say anything about Dielman because I didn’t end up doing run metrics this year due to having to write Contrarian Football.
R.V. What about Leonard Davis? Your own John Clayton has linked him to Dallas, saying Davis could wind up with the Cowboys or 49ers. Again, is he average? A sleeper? Does his #2 overall draft spot blind people to his real worth?
K.C.J. — Davis’ run blocking metrics at tackle last year were adequate. His pass blocking metrics for basically his entire career are mediocre. He isn’t a shutdown LT and has been beaten by speed rushers far too often to be paid like one. If Dallas acquires him and moves him to guard, that would limit his pass blocking issues and increase his value.
R.V. Finally, let’s discuss Drew Bennett. One of my sources made a very good point about Bennett yesterday: the Cowboys just hired Ray Sherman, who was Bennett’s position coach in Tennessee the past few years. Terrell Owens‘ finger is a real concern, Jerry Jones’ support notwithstanding. Might Dallas look at him for insurance?
K.C.J. — Drew Bennett’s metrics over the past few years show that he can be a dominant (and I don’t use that word lightly) medium pass WR when utilized properly. Dallas doesn’t need him to be the vertical threat because Terry Glenn already has that spot locked down.
Bennett could be the steal of the free agent market if he lands with the right team and the Cowboys look like they could be that team. A combination of Bennett, Glenn and Owens could make the Boys offense as explosive as the 2004 Colts. I don’t see Tony Romo throwing 49 TDs or anything like that, but the talent level would be there.
Discuss.
Hamlin would seem to be the better of those [Hamlin and Deion Grant] but he struggled big time against the deep pass this year.
KC Joyner on Ken Hamlin’s 2006, Espnet
Ken Hamlin was having and excellent season before he was injured in an off the field incident. Hamlin was stopping nearly 70% of the passes thrown at him and was especially good at shutting down the deep pass.
– Joyner, Scientific Football 2006, on Hamlin’s abbreviated 2005 season
If you could promise me the 2005 Ken Hamlin, I’d take a shot at him later this week. Here are some comparisons with his 2005 play and Keith Davis’, to give you yet one more piece of evidence to show Dallas really, really, I’m begging you please really, needs a free safety.
Coverage Safeties, 2005
Success %
1. Nick Collins, Green Bay, 69.4%
2. Ken Hamlin, Seattle, 68.2%
24. Keith Davis, Dallas, 45.2%
Yards Allowed
1. Sam Brandon, Denver, 94
2. Ken Hamlin, Seattle, 135
32. Keith Davis, Dallas 435
Yards per Attempt
1. Sam Brandon, Denver 4.1
5. Ken Hamlin, Seattle, 6.1
36. Keith Davis, Dallas 15.6
SYPA — Success x YPA
1. Sam Brandon, Denver, 1.4
3. Ken Hamlin, Seattle, 2.0
36. Keith Davis, Dallas, 8.6
Deep Pass Success %
5. Ken Hamlin, Seattle 80%
11. Brian Dawkins, Phila., 71%
34. Keith Davis, Dallas, 42.9%
Deep Pass Yards Allowed
13. Chris Hope, Pitt., 125
15. Darren Sharper, Minn, 138
36. Keith Davis, Dallas, 369
Let’s put aside the question of which Hamlin will show up in 2007. Look at Davis’ coverage stats. They were the worst in the NFL that year among coverage safeties. Joyner’s synopsis echoes something said on this blog time and again this past year, “what happens when a team has two run safeties and no cover safeties?”
Know that 36 safeties played enough to earn ratings, so Davis ranked dead last in several categories, including all the deep coverage stats. The 2006 numbers are not out, but when you consider that Pat Watkins was benched for a time to reinsert Davis, well, I think you know my take.
I just talked to some sources today about the upcoming Free Agent Festival of Gluttony. Some things to watch for.
1. A blowout first 24 hours. One source says that you could wake up Friday morning (clubs can contact players at 11:01 Central time Thursday night, midnight Eastern time) and see some big deals in the bag.
I’ll go one better. It wouldn’t surprise me if some deals have already been hammered out in principle and simply await a player’s signature. Remember last season when the Philadelphia press was crowing that LeCharles Bentley was sealed-and-delivered to the Eagles and would sign when it was permissible? The Browns interrupted that plan, but it was obvious that some preliminary contract discussions had taken place.
Look at the information trickling out of the just-completed combine. The major analysts reported last week that agents were booking interviews with teams interested in their clients, as a way of sorting out the serious players from the also-rans. One story said one team was willing to offer Leonard Davis a $12 million signing bonus. Do you really think ball-park numbers or perhaps more precise ones were not discussed?
2. Hot Seat Spenders — When did Bill Parcells make his biggest free agent splash? In year three of his regime, when he dropped to 6-10 and wanted a fast turnaround. Look for teams with coaches facing make-or-break campaigns, like Parcells in ‘05. If they spend big bucks and improve, they keep their jobs. If they spend big coin and fail, the contracts are their successor’s problem. They’ve got nothing to lose:
– San Francisco — They’ve got the most cap space. They’re trying for the umpteenth time to get a new stadium. Mike Nolan raised the team from 4-12 to 7-9. Another step forward and they’re back in the playoffs for the first time in five years. Adalius Thomas (who played for Nolan in Baltimore), Nate Clements and Davis (who played for Niners’ OL coach George Warhop in Arizona) are names you hear tied to the Niners.
– Cleveland — Romeo Crennell needs more wins or he’ll be an assistant again in 2008. I’ve seen them connected to both Kris Deilman and Eric Steinbach.
– New York Giants — Tom Coughlin barely kept this job this year. He has a new GM running the show. Lots of expensive veterans have retired or have been released. The Giants should be in the mix.
– Jacksonville — Jack Del Rio has plateaued. Can a key signing or two put this team back among the AFC’s elite?
– Washington — The Redskins have the 6th overall pick and don’t select again until the 5th round. How else will they restock their team if not in free agency? Dan Snyder has the money. Can his capologist clear the space?
– Where does Dallas go for its veteran QB now that Damon Huard has resigned with Kansas City?
The Chiefs thinned the QB herd when they re-signed Huard this afternoon. That leaves guys like Tim Rattay atop the list, unless Dallas wants to spend bigger money on somebody like Jeff Garcia.
– Finally, does Jerry Jones have one big signing in him? Jones downplayed any big action in a Ft. Worth Star-Telegram story today, saying he didn’t see any huge needs on his team. But we also know Jerry loves the spotlight. Can he keep his checkbook tucked away, with so much cap space available?
Dallas Morning News Calvin Watkins reports this morning that Dallas Cowboys are expected to announce the hiring of former San Diego Chargers secondary coach Brian Stewart for DC. Todd Bowles will remain in his position as secondary coach.
Free agent rumors three days before the free-for-all begins.
– San Francisco has the most cap money and will spend it. Make them the favorites in the Adalius Thomas derby. ‘Niners’ HC Mike Nolan was Thomas’ DC in Baltimore before moving west.
The Niners are also expected to chase Seahawks FS Ken Hamlin and perhaps one of the Kris Deilman/Eric Steinbach duo.
– Guard Grows Into Money Position. Left tackles and centers have become big money positions in recent years. Now, it’s the guards’ turn. Last year, Seattle’s Steve Hutchinson fled to Minnesota for a seven year, $49 million deal. It now appears that Eric Steinbach and Kris Deilman will top Hutchinson’s deal. They’re the top rated players after Thomas (who is 29, with seven years under his belt, a fact that might keep his price down a bit).
The Browns, 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos are all reported to be interested in the guards. Several other teams are surely lurking in the shadows ready to make their bids. There’s the persistent rumor that a team is prepared to give Leonard Davis a $12 million signing bonus and he’s not in the same class as Deilman or Steinbach.
It’s time to put Jerry’s money where your mouth is. Are you prepared to spend that type of dough on guys who are good, but perhaps not up to Hutchinson’s skills?
– Trade Fair? I speculated last week that the shallow free agent pool could lead to more trades. Today come stories that Thomas Jones, Dre Bly, Jared Allen, Willis McGahee, Michael Turner, Darrell Jackson, David Carr and Lance Briggs are all being shopped or have asked to be moved.
– Falcons DE Patrick Kerney’s late foray into free agency could affect the Cowboys’ draft. The Falcons have been a near consensus landing spot among mock drafters for LSU’s blue chip safety prospect Laron Landry. The Falcons are talking to Landry, who likes the idea of donning an Atlanta uniform.
But Kerney’s imminent departure also saw the Falcons interviewing Nebraska DE Adam Carriker at the Combine this weekend.
Jerry Jones gave a lengthy interview on Costas on the Radio tonight. Points of interest:
– Jones said the organization had put “too much on Tony [Romo’s] shoulders” after his strong opening month. He remains optimistic that Romo will continue to improve and does not feel Romo remains burdened by his dropped snap in the playoff losses final minute.
– He believes that Bill Parcells would likely have returned had Dallas beaten the Seahawks.
– Jones “saw a motive” for hiring Wade Phillips as Bill Parcells’ successor, saying Phillips feels he has earned a lasting reputation as a quality NFL coordinator, but argued that if he got a chance to coach the Dallas Cowboys and do what he was capable of doing that his final resume would include the line “successful NFL head coach.”
– He feels Phillips M.O. complements Parcells’ style, and that Parcells mentioned that he needed to win because his style was one that did not wear well on players, regardless of whether he won or lost.
– Jones admitted to host Bob Costas that he has “lost the collateral with the fans” that winning three championships in four years earned him.
– When asked if personnel control would shift back to him after Parcells had near-total control, Jones said “it’s not as clear as you might think.” He didn’t say Phillips would have Parcells’ level of control but suggested that Phillips would have considerable input and that Dallas’ chain of command would be very similar to what has been in place the past few seasons.
– Jones conceded that he knew Terrell Owens would bring a circus but was even bigger than he anticipated. He also said he would not change his decision if he could make it again. He added that he gained respect for Parcells for his manner of handling the circus.
– He said Michael Irvin “will have a lot of opportunity” after his dismissal from ESPN’s show. He cited Irvin’s work ethic and intelligence as the reasons. He said he would be open to having Irvin work for Cowboys’ media. (I’ll say it again, if Irvin does not find another high profile media job, I think you will see him in Charlie Waters’ analyst seat.)
Come on, Jerry, who are you signing in free agency this weekend?!
In an unattributed post, kffl.com claims the Cowboys and 49ers both are serious contestants for Leonard Davis’ signature when free agency begins on Thursday.
The few scouting reports I have have found on Davis claim he would work much better on the right side of the offensive line, rather than at left tackle, where he has played for Dennis Green. That diagnosis fits’ Dallas needs, since RT Marc Colombo remains unsigned and RG Marco Rivera faces rehab for a second herniated disc.
If the report is true, Davis has likely been targeted as a replacement for one of these two.
Sunday was RB/WR/QB day at the combine, and NFL Network has been airing continuous coverage for all interested in tracking this year’s top prospects. WR has been a popular topic in our threads lately, so below are some measurables on the top WRs in Indianapolis this weekend.
Of the big name WR prospects, Ted Ginn, Jr. (OSU) and Dwayne Jarrett (USC) did not work out. Calvin Johnson, the consensus #1 WR on the board, ran the 40 and interviewed, but did not participate in any other drills.
- Anthony Gonzalez (OSU): 4.44 40 yd dash; 38 inch vertical
- Jason Hill (Wash State): 4.32 40 yd dash;Â 37 inch vertical
- Dwayne Bowe (LSU): 4.49 40 yd dash
- Robert Meachem (Tenn): 4.39 40 yd dash
- Steve Smith (USC): 4.44 40 yd dash
- Calvin Johnson (Ga. Tech): 4.35 40 yd dash
Other notes:
Dwayne Bowe is a very physically impressive specimen at the WR position. NFL Network announcers compared him to last year’s Vernon Davis in terms of visual appeal. To me, he looks like a Kelly Washington or mini-David Boston in terms of physique.
Calvin Johnson posted that 4.35 time without much of a warm-up and while wearing ANOTHER PLAYER’S SHOES. Johnson decided to run at the last moment and borrowed shoes from a West Virginia QB prospect.
The top 40 time amongst WRs was posted by someone named Yamon Figurs out of Kansas State.
NFL Network has their top WRs ordered like this at the moment:
- Calvin Johnson
- Ted Ginn, Jr.
- Dwayne Bowe
- Robert Meachem
- Dwayne Jarrett
I don’t know that we saw anything today to change that list dramatically — Ginn, Jr. and Jarrett’s Pro Days may shed a little more light on the positioning of #2 though #5.
One more note: Adrian Peterson just notched a 4.38 40 yd dash. Physically, he has looked like a monster this weekend.
Some news here and there surfacing from this weekend.
After the firing of Marty Schottenheimer, there were speculations that Wade Phillips would again request to interview San Diego Chargers secondary coach Brian Stewart to join his staff as a DC. On top of that, the Chargers just released his contract and hired a new secondary coach. Fort Worth Star-Telegram Clarence E. Hill Jr. reports that the Chargers have finally granted Cowboys permission to speak with Stewart. Does this mean Todd Bowles lost his chance to be the next DC?
Terrell Owens has always been one to brag about being a fast healer. He is at it again. According to his agent Drew Rosenhaus in the same article, T.O. could be ready to catch some footballs even before training camp in July. His second finger surgery isn’t even scheduled until this Thursday. I wonder where the optimism is coming from.
KFFL.COM reports that Cowboys interviewed with Florida State LB Lawrence Timmons at the NFL Combine. Timmons is familiar with the 3-4 since his FSU team played a mix of 3-4 and 4-3. He also interviewed with Pittsburgh Steelers. He hired Rosenhaus as his agent.
The Cowboys elicited a lot of groans when they cut LG Larry Allen last spring, then promptly replaced him with Lions’ OG Kyle Kosier. Some disgruntled fans posted links to youtube footage of Kosier, playing out of position as a tackle, getting beaten for sacks his rookie season with San Francisco.
Familiarity, or lack of familiarity in Kosier’s case, drove the discussion. Allen was a Cowboys’ legend, a multi-time Pro Bowler who had manned every spot on the line except center. Kosier was a no-name lineman on a last place team. It seemed impossible that he could provide an upgrade.
A look at playing tape suggested otherwise. The run blocking statistics from K.C. Joyner’s Scientific Football 2006 tables show Kosier was very effective in ‘05, moreso than Allen. Joyner uses three metrics, blocking success %, the average yards per play run behind a blocker and a combination he notes as SYPA, which is success x yards-per-attempt. The factors seem self evidence. Success rate measure the number of times a blocker got a hat on his primary responsibility. The yards show how much push a blocker got and the SYPA tries to balance them out. If a blocker gets consistent contact, but little push, his SYPA will be lower than a blocker who gets a strong push but might whiff once in a while.
(Admittedly, these are new metrics. Joyner published them for the first time last spring and they are not definitive. His numbers do not, for instance, calculate pass-blocking effectiveness. They are, however, the most thorough, empirical numbers fans have at their disposal right now.)
Kosier was a true find. Consider his rankings in these categories vs. Allen:
Guards, 2005
Success %,
1. Ruben Brown, Chicago, 90.9%
2. Kyle Kosier, Detroit, 89.8%
3. Derrick Dockery, Washington, 89.5%
27. Larry Allen, 81.4%
Yards per Attempt
1. Matt Lehr, Atlanta, 6.0 yds;
4. Steve Hutchingson, Seattle, 5.7 yds;
15. Kyle Kosier, Detroit, 5.1 yds;
22. Larry Allen, Dallas, 4.8 yds;
SYPA
1. Ruben Brown, Chicago 5.0
2. Cooper Carlysle, Denver, 5.0
3. Will Shields, K.C. 4.9
4. Brian Waters, K.C. 4.8
7. Steve Hutchinson, Seattle, 4.7
11. Kyle Kosier, Detroit, 4.6
23. Larry Allen, Dallas, 3.9
In the run blocking metrics, Kosier graded out as a good, but not great guard, somebody just below Pro Bowl rank, yet above league average.
From a salary cap perspective, Kosier was the type of value every team looks for. He provided the same better-than average-but-not-quite Pro Bowl performance this year at a highly reduced price. Dallas signed Kosier for five years, $15 million with a $5 million signing bonus. Compare that to the $7.6 million Allen was due to receive in ‘06. Moreover, compare Kosier’s deal to the five year, $20 million deal with a $9 million bonus that Marco Rivera signed in 2004.
In a free agency season loaded with mid and low-range misfires — Rocky Boiman, Ryan Hannam, Mike Vanderjagt, Jason Fabini — Kosier and ILB Akin Ayodele were money well spent. Kosier is just 28 and should continue to produce at a steady level.
As free agency approaches bigger names like Eric Steinbach, Kris Deilman and Leonard Davis are in play. The short supply and the high amont of cap room makes it’s possible that a younger player like Deilman could walk away with Steve Hutchinson-type money (7 years, $49 million). If the Cowboys are looking for another signing next week on their offensive line or on any other team unit, they should look beyond the overhyped names for guys like Kosier. This is the blueprint New England used so successfully in its Super Bowl run earlier this decade.
I found this line on free safety and free-agent-to-be Ken Hamlin, whose name pops up a lot here. From K.C. Joyner’s Insider’s chat on ESPN this week:
Hamlin would seem to be the better of those [Hamlin and Deion Grant] but he struggled big time against the deep pass this year.
I’ll be surprised if Dallas doesn’t go for this spot in the draft.
Terrell Owens will undergo the second surgery on his injured index finger next week.
For details on the procedure, look here.
Elevator Up, Elevator Down?
Will the Bears have a short ride at the top? GM Jerry Angelo anticipates several player losses once free agency starts. He considers backup DT Ian Scott and Alphonso Boone all but gone and says he will try to accomodate RB Thomas Jones’ trade request.
The Bears will not pursue free agent QB Jeff Garcia, who expressed interest in them after the Super Bowl, meaning they are going ahead with Rex Grossman at the helm.
Maybe It’s Time for Plan C
KFFL.com, in unattributed posts, claims the Raiders (1) Dolphins (9) Jaguars (17) and Jets (25) have spoken to Penn State OT Levi Brown at the Combine. Brown is steadily rising on draft charts, as he’s the next rated tackle after Wisconsin’s Joe Thomas, who is certain to go in the top three.
Brown gets some mention from Cowboys partisans but it’s looking like he’ll be long gone when Dallas’ turn on the clock comes around.
The Jaguars also announced that they will likely end their relationship with FS Deion Grant. Jags coach Jack Del Rio lauded backup FS Gerald Sensabaugh but said the team will likely draft a safety, since starting SS Donovan Darius is returning from a broken leg.
The Jaguars’ need diminishes the likelihood that one of the Laron Landry/Reggie Nelson duo falls to Dallas at pick 22.
On the other hand, Atlanta, whom many mocks award one of the blue chip FSs, may be looking at pass rushers. DE Patrick Kerney used a loophole in his contract to declare for free agency and thinks his Falcons career has ended.
– KFFL also mentions that Dallas interviewed East Carolina WR Aundrae Allison, who projects as a 3rd rounder. Don’t overpromote him on your personal draft boards; Cowboys draft maven Jeff Ireland says the team will interview at least 60 players in Indianapolis this weekend.
Several stories are in play:
1. Special Teams Coach Hired The Cowboys added Bruce Read to their staff. Read has several years of NFL experience, most recently with the Chargers.
2. More Assistant Coach Intrigue? Eyebrows were raised by San Diego’s hiring of DB coach Bill Bradley yesterday. The Chargers currently have two secondary coaches, a tactic that backfired on them in recent years. Bradley’s addition increases speculation that Brian Stewart might get permission to join Wade Phillips in Dallas.
3. Colombo next? Stories from the Dallas press yesterday have the Cowboys moving from Andre Gurode’s deal into early negotiations with RT Marc Colombo. The Cowboys are adamant that they will not overpay Colombo. If no deal is worked out today, look for Colombo to test the market, which opens next week.
I applaud the Cowboys for sticking to a predetermined salary scale. That said, there’s no guarantee that another team won’t throw excessive money in Colombo’s direction. If that happens, I cannot fault him for taking it or the Cowboys for passing on matching it.
Dallas does have Pat McQuistan as a fallback option, something a source reiterated this week. (He was convinced that Colombo would likely leave, for the reasons stated.) Where would that leave the Cowboys draft wise?
If Colombo returns, the emphasis will shift to finding a first day guard, in my opinion. If Colombo leaves, tackle becomes the top priority, because Flozell Adams becomes a free agent in ‘08 and the Cowboys will need to find his replacement.
I was told that the Cowboys’ player templates for o-linemen (and all positions for that matter) will likely stay the same. No major changes are planned for the offense this year. And why would Dallas consider this, given its success in ‘06?
This means the team will value linemen who can pull and run. If you’re looking guard, think Ben Grubbs over bigger, heavier, more straight-ahead guys like Justin Blalock. At tackle, think about guys like Joe Staley. When you read profiles on o-linemen look for lines like this, which I found in a draft profile of Daryn Colledge, a player Dallas tried to get in round two last year,
Can be nasty and drive defenders into the ground. Can pull, trap and maneuver out in space.
For better or worse, the salary cap is here to stay in the NFL, and we are now firmly entrenched in what could probably be called the 2nd generation of the Salary Cap Era (or, “How I Learned to Love the Cap”). Teams have figured out how to work within the constraints of the salary cap, and while there are still some occasional cases of poor decision-making, salary cap health in general is up across the league. Take a look at the cap numbers for each team heading into 2007 — only 4 squads have less than $5M to work with.
The cap has increased dramatically in the past 3 years. The 2007 salary cap figure is $109M, a moderate increase over last year’s number of $102M. In 2005, however, the cap was only $85.5M, before the CBA was extended at the 11th hour. Teams struggling to manage their cap numbers intelligently have certainly benefited from this rapidly-escalating ceiling (the Redskins, in particular, were bailed out by a big cap jump last offseason).
However, there are also a number of other factors that have contributed to the general increase of teams with healthy salary cap situations. Younger players are extended sooner, before they hit the open market (see: Andre Gurode, Bradie James). Older players with backloaded deals are asked to restructure before their contracts become a problem (see: Mark Brunell, Chad Pennington).
That is not to say that all cap management is a happy-go-lucky, friendship-oriented business, of course — teams are also structuring contracts in ways that make it easier to cut players without having to endure significant cap penalties. Look at the situations of Lawyer Milloy a few seasons back in New England, or the case of LaVar Arrington just last week with the New York Giants.
Terrell Owens‘ current contact with Dallas is a prime example of a deal which pays a player well but also makes it easy for a team to sever ties with him without putting themselves in cap prison. Deals like the Deion Sanders debacle in Washington, where teams are left paying players exorbitant salaries for years after they have been released, are becoming increasingly rare.
Dallas is an excellent example of a team that experienced some growing pains with the salary cap in its earlier incarnations, but in recent seasons has demonstrated a greatly-enhanced ability to work within its limitations while fielding a competitive roster. The latter part is important — teams like the Arizona Cardinals don’t get points for maintaining a healthy cap cushion in my book, because they have done so while remaining firmly in the basement of their divisions.
Below is a breakdown of Dallas’ total team salary going back to 1999, followed by the amount of flexibility that allowed them under the cap for that year. These numbers reflect Dallas’ situation entering the offseason, not at the start of the season — teams must be under the salary cap by March 2, or they face potential sanctions in the form of lost draft picks and fines:
1999: $50.1M ($3.0M)
2000: $54.1M ($0.9M)
2001: $48.5M ($-19.1M)
2002: $74.1M ($-3.0M)
2003: $81.0M ($-6.0M)
2004: $65.4M ($15.2M)
2005: $82.2M ($3.2M)
2006: $90.8M ($18.2M)
2007: $87.5M ($21.5M)
It is very difficult to find reliable cap numbers pre-1999 by team out there, or I would have gone back further. The 1997 and 1998 teams were also in rough cap shape as the organization tried to make one last run at a title with its aging stars (Aikman, Lett, Erik Williams, and others were still on the squad at that point).
What these numbers show is, though it has been a rocky road at times, the Cowboys have learned enough to put themselves in good cap shape for consecutive seasons for the first time in recent history, while also fielding a competitive team (again, that is a crucial component to consider).
Some of this is due to the youth of the current squad, but there is also much to compliment Jerry Jones, Stephen Jones, and Bill Parcells on in terms of decision-making: High-risk signings like Marcellus Wiley and Eddie George have been made only when there is low risk associated with the required investment, and free agency splashes have been made chiefly on players with reliable track records who are expected to be with the squad for the long term (Anthony Henry and Jason Ferguson vs. Adam Archuleta and Brandon Lloyd).
Just as a fun sidenote (it’s fun now, I suppose — I remember in 2001 it was not quite as humorous), here’s what a salary cap situation like the one shown for 2001 produces in terms of an offseason:
COWBOYS’ OFFSEASON ADDITIONS: QB-Tony Banks (cut by BAL) signed with DAL (1 year/$500G); WR-Carl Pickens (cut by TEN) signed with DAL (1 year); RB-John Avery (XFL) signed with DAL (1 year); WR-Jermaine Copeland (XFL) signed with DAL (1 year).
Lest we forget what salary cap prison is like, that list should be posted on the wall of every capologist that Dallas employs.
I mentioned last week that the Chargers could deny any Cowboys requests to hire defensive assistants John Pagano and Brian Stewart but that each could request to be let out of his contract.
The San Diego Union Tribune mentions that one or both might make that request. (scroll down) Norv Turner has stated that he plans to keep all current assistants on staff, but yesterday’s hire of Ron Rivera to be the Chargers’ new LB coach puts Pagano’s role in question. He was the team’s assistant linebacker coach in ‘06 and would likely remain in the same capacity. Stewart is San Diego’s secondary coach. Wade Phillips has made no secret of his regard for both.
Update: I Guess It All Depends on the Meaning of “as of today, no”
The Union-Tribune here quotes Turner as being less than emphatic in his zeal to retain Pagano and Stewart. The money graf:
Asked if he would let defensive backs coach Brian Stewart and/or assistant linebackers coach John Pagano go to Dallas for promotions under new head coach Wade Phillips, Turner said, “As of today, no.â€
Stay tuned.
Free Agency Update: The biggest free agent story, or non-story thus far has been Baltimore’s inactivity regarding Adalius Thomas. The Ravens have until tomorrow to franchise him, transition him to let him walk for no compensation. The current thinking is that Thomas will leave, though Thomas could be franchised at any time.
And the signings just keep coming.
We know the big potential free agents — Dwight Freeney, Asante Samuel, Lance Briggs — were all given the franchise tag in recent days.
Others, like Andre Gurode, got big long-term deals.
Notice that the better restricted free agents are being taken off the market. This afternoon San Diego locked up OLB Shaun Phillips for six years with $13 million guaranteed.
This promises some sticker shock on March 3rd. I’ll repeat the prediction that we’ll see “baseball-style contracts” in the first week, as teams scramble to get the best mid-level talents.
With so much demand and an ever diminishing supply, guys like San Diego’s Kris Deilman, Buffalo’s Nate Clemens, Detroit’s Corey Redding and Tennessee’s Drew Bennett could hit it rich.
Crazy rich.
What happens if several teams try to avoid the craziness? The demand for talent won’t diminish. Might we see the return of trades? Not players for draft picks, though that could also happen. I’m talking player for player or player for several players, as we see in other major teams sports?
New Coach Syndrome
A source made a good point regarding free agency. New coaches often bring players from their old teams with them. With a volatile market sure to erupt, organizations will often turn to players their staff knows well. Why did the Cowboys, for instance, sign Anthony Henry in 2004, rather than the better known Ken Lucas? The then-new DB coach Todd Bowles’ familiarity with Henry, whom he had coached in Cleveland, likely tipped the balance in Henry’s favor. Consider all the former Jets that Bill Parcells brought with him to Dallas.
From the Cowboys’ perspective, take a good look at San Diego’s, Miami’s, Tennessee’s and Oakland’s free agent crops. Wade Phillips’ knows the Chargers’ staff very well and his input will likely carry a lot of weight in team free agency meetings. Jason Garrett’s opinion will also have some heft, as will Ray Sherman’s and Skip Peete’s.
Update, 2:44:
Rafael here. I just spoke to a couple of sources and learned that Gurode’s deal averages somewhere near $5 million per season.
That may seem a bit high at first glance, bit it appears reasonable given the current circumstances. First, it’s not the highest NFL center contract. Cleveland’s LeCharles Bentley still claims the biggest deal, at six years and $36 million dollars. Gurode’s deal is slightly more than Viking Matt Birk’s deal and a fair amount more than Patriot Dan Koppen’s; he signed a five year extention worth between $19 and $20 million last fall.
In other words, the Cowboys may have overpaid in a static market, but not by much.
Let’s consider that Gurode’s signing comes just before a wild market spike. Most NFL teams are far under their caps and are itching to spend. What’s more, the top layer of free agents has been signed or franchised in recent days. One NFL official predicted that we could see “baseball-like numbers” for the better free agents’ contracts next month.
If Dallas did overpay, it was by at most half a million dollars. That’s less than one half of one percent of this year’s $109 million cap standard. Weigh that against losing Gurode in a bidding war this March. Would you rather keep the 500K and start Al Johnson at center?
Gurode’s signing almost certainly ends Johnson’s Cowboys career. He will become an unrestricted free agent next month and it makes no sense for Dallas to spend big money on a backup.
The Cowboys have to be breathing easier now. Keeping Gurode was the team’s biggest free agency priority and they’ve extended him for less-than-crazy money.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
The Cowboys have signed center Andre Gurode to a six year contract extension.
I think everyone expected this to be the ‘Boys #1 priority in free agency this offseason and they locked him up relatively quickly, prior to the time next week when Gurode would have hit the open market. Terms of the deal are not immediately available, but John Clayton speculates that Gurode will become one of the league’s highest paid centers.
Well, the Scouting Combine gets underway this week, so lets get three-cone-drilled with some various mocks to see what conventional wisdom (and the not-so-conventional) has the Cowboys thinking.
Keep in mind, mock drafting is much like the Wonderlic testing – there’s lots of room for error, and getting 6 right still means you can make millions of dollars from the first round.
1. Mike Florio from profootballtalk.com (who said he doesn’t get mock drafting)
20. Giants: Craig Davis, WR, LSU
21. Broncos: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
22. Cowboys: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State
23. Chiefs: Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi
24. Patriots (from Seattle): Arron Sears, OT, Tennessee
Notes: Gonzalez is his 6th WR off the board in Round 1. Updated 2/12
2. Ryan McCrystal from DraftAce.com
20. Giants: Darrell Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
21. Broncos: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
22. Cowboys: Reggie Nelson, FS, Florida
23. Chiefs: Sidney Rice, WR, S. Carolina
24. Patriots: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
Notes: Indicated that Nelson would be a “steal†at that pick. LaRon Landry is the only safety mocked higher, has Leon Hall and Darrell Revis as cornerbacks already off the board. Has Samson Satele an OG/C from Hawaii in round 2. Updated 2/11
3. Todd McShay from ESPN.com and Scouts, Inc.
20. Giants: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
21. Broncos: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
22. Cowboys: Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal
23. Chiefs: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
24. Patriots: Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida
Notes: Calls Nelson “ideal,†but he’s off the board. Indicates a Hughes pick would make the Henry-to-FS move happen. Comments that Hughes was the best cover corner at the Senior Bowl, but has questions about his speed. Updated 2/15.
4. Mel Kiper, Jr. from ESPN.com
20. Giants: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St.
21. Broncos: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
22. Cowboys: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
23. Chiefs: Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
24. Patriots: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
Notes: Has Meachem listed as his 20th best overall prospect, indicates a fast time at the combine could move him up that list. Updated 1/25
5. Don Banks from Sports Illustrated
20. Giants, Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
21. Broncos: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
22. Cowboys: Dameyion Hughes, CB, Cal
23. Chiefs: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
24. Patriots: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State
Notes: Again mentions Henry to safety. Has the Broncos picking Revis instead of Hughes because of his return ability. Updated 2/16
6. OurLads Scouting Services (no writer attributed)
20. Giants: LaRon Landry, FS, LSU
21. Broncos: Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
22. Cowboys: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
23. Chiefs: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
24. Patriots: Brandon Siler, LB, Florida
Notes: Has the Cowboys selecting Doug Datish a center/guard from an Ohio State University in the second. Updated 1/29 (post Senior Bowl)
7. Peter Schrager from FOXSports.com
20. Giants: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
21. Broncos: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
22. Cowboys: Justin Blalock, G, Texas
23. Chiefs: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
24. Patriots: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
Notes: Calls the Blalock pick “logical.†Updated on 2/16
8. Rob Rang from NFLDraftScout.com
20. Giants: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
21. Broncos: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
22. Cowboys: Brandon Meriweather, S, Tha U (of Miami)
23. Chiefs: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
24. Patriots: Anthony Spenser, DE, Purdue
Notes: Calls Meriweather a first-round talent, save for his off-field issues (see below). Updated 2/13
9. Robert Davis of FootballsFuture.com
20. Giants: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
21. Broncos: Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
22. Cowboys: Justin Blalock, G, Texas
23. Chiefs: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
24. Patriots: Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal
Notes: Indicates Blalock would “help immediately.†Has the Cowboys taking Kareem Brown, a DT from Tha U (or as Joe Theisman calls it, “The Mâ€) in round number two. Updated 2/14
10. Brian Tollcot from NFLDaily.com
20. Giants: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
21. Broncos: Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno St.
22. Cowboys: Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.
23. Chiefs: Sydney Rice, WR, South Carolina
24. Patriots: Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal
Notes: Various typos and formatting and capitalization errors make me doubt this site’s reliability. Has the Cowboys taking Eric Wright, a CB from UNLV in the second and Chris Houston another CB from Arkansas in the third. Updated 2/9
11. Great Blue Draft Report
20. Giants: Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St.
21. Broncos: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
22. Cowboys: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
23. Chiefs: Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
24. Patriots: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
Notes: Has Tanard Jackson from Syracuse getting the call in the 2nd. Updated 2/6
12. Frank Coyle of DraftInsiders.com
20. Giants: Michael Griffin, FS, Texas
21. Broncos: Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
22. Cowboys: Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
23. Chiefs: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
24. Patriots: Brandon Siler, LB, Florida
Notes: Mentions being prepared for a “TO Meltdown†with the Meachem selection. Pegs OT Ryan Harris from Notre Dame in the second. Updated 2/9
So there you go, 12 mocks from around the net. Obviously some are more reliable than others are. I’d dismiss NFLDaily.com almost completely. Profootballtalk.com seemed to be haphazard about it, and didn’t put alot of stock into his own mock draft.
Rather than getting hung up on who they mock the Cowboys to take, look at who’s in that five-player snap shot, and get an idea about the players in that range.
In total, three WR were mocked to the Cowboys, with Meachem appearing on two. Anthony Gonzalez and Sidney Rice were the others. A pair of OL appeared next to Dallas; Justin Blalock on a pair, and Levi Brown on another. Four DB were mocked to Dallas, safeties Nelson and Meriweather and CBs Hughes and Hall.
In our snapshot, there were at total of 60 picks. Robert Meachem was 7 of those spots. So take it that he’s viewed as a 20-24 talent. Same can be said of Hughes (4 of 60), Revis (5), Rice (5), Moss (4). That’s 25 of the 60 on 5 players.
Others, like Anthony Gonzalez, and Arkansas OL Tony Ugoh, and Michael Griffin only showed up once. Meaning someone has probably stretched a little bit – either a reach, or going for the guessing game.
You can also see by the variety of names that people view WR, CB, and S as strong positions. Not so much for RB (1), QB (0), and C (0). Consider that when thinking about letting Gurode walk, or trading Jones, not committing to Romo, etc.
As for Meriweather’s “off-field issues†because that comes up every time you read his name. He was involved in the Miami-FIU brawl the same day as that Holy Cross fight. For his role, he got a one game suspension and wrote an apology letter. He was seen stomping on Florida International players.
His other issue came in July, when he fired a handgun at someone who shot his teammate, Willie Cooper. Here’s more info on that for you to make up your mind:
Meriweather’s gun was registered, and he had a concealed-carry permit. The shooting also happened outside his home at about 6:30 am. He and Cooper said they went outside in reaction to hearing someone, and the shots were fired in return. No charges were filed against him.
I’m not saying he should be a Cowboys pick in the first, but it’s not like he’s PacMan or Lawrence Phillips either.
As we make our way towards April, remember the primary definition of mock: to attack or treat with ridicule, contempt, or derision.
Ron Rivera, Norv Turner, Mike Zimmer, Gary Gibbs, Mike Singletary…
The Chargers head coaching search mirrored the Cowboys’ search, with the three minor exceptions. The Chargers didn’t interview as many candidates, they didn’t interview as many minority candidates and they did interview Ravens’ DC Rex Ryan.
Now that San Diego has hired Norv Turner, I wonder when we’ll be treated to a front page, hyperventiating, ad hominem slam on Chargers’ President Dean Spanos and GM A.J. Smith from ESPN’s Gene Wojciechowski , telling us how uninspiring Turner is, how San Diego’s process insulted black coaches everywhere and how this shows the Chargers are has beens, claims the Wojoblowhard made when Dallas hired Wade Phillips? (Considering the Chargers have never won a Super Bowl, perhaps we can refer to them as “America’s Never-Beens?” )
I know, I know, when monkeys fly out of Chris Berman’s butt.
