We all know that there is an anti-Cowboys bias as it relates to the Hall of Fame, but is there also a pro-Redskins bias at work in team rankings?ÂÂ
If you watched the ESPN guys rate the passing receivers last night, you might answer in the affirmative. The ratings finished with the Redskins being placed in the #3 spot and the Cowboys finished with the #5.
This might just be more of the “Washington made all the right moves this off-season†mantra that has permeated from the Bristol studios for the past couple of seasons, mainly due to the return of Chief Joe Gibbs.
In March, the Redskins sent a 3rd round pick in 2006 and a 4th round pick in 2007 to the 49ers for receiver Brandon Lloyd. They also signed receiver Antwaan Randle El to a seven-year deal worth $31 million with an $11.5 million signing bonus. To bolster their tight end position, they signed Christian Fauria from the Patriots.
The Cowboys signed Terrell Owens to a 3-year deal worth $25 million – a contract that is in essence three one-year deals.
After watching the show and with some prodding (Thanks, John) I decided to take a stab and substantiating the rankings by comparing the two prospective starting lineups. In doing so I assumed 3 receivers and a tight end – since the ESPN crew were only looking at those positions and excluded running backs.
For the Redskins I used last year’s numbers for Santana Moss, Lloyd, Randle El and Chris Cooley. Cooley is one of those hybrid players but was used more as a receiver than a back. NFL.com also has him listed as a tight end. I did not use Fauria because his numbers over his career are horrendous – his best season was 377 yards in 1998 with the Seahawks.
For the Cowboys I used Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Terry Glenn and Jason Witten.
This task was made a bit difficult because the Cowboys have two players – Owens and Crayton – who did not play in all 16 games. So I looked at it from a couple of different angles.
Straight-up numbers
Looking at the raw statistics I see the following (Games is the total number of games by all four players):
| Washington | Games | Nbr | Yards | Avg | TDs | 20+ | 40+ | 1st Dn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Moss | 16 | 84 | 1483 | 17.7 | 9 | 24 | 10 | 60 |
| B.Lloyd | 16 | 48 | 799 | 15.3 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 34 |
| A.RandleEl | 16 | 35 | 558 | 15.9 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 23 |
| C.Cooley | 16 | 71 | 774 | 10.9 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 44 |
| TOTAL | 64 | 238 | 3548 | 14.9 | 22 | 49 | 16 | 161 |
vs.
| Dallas | Games | Nbr | Yards | Avg | TDs | 20+ | 40+ | 1st Dn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Glenn | 16 | 62 | 1136 | 18.3 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 49 |
| T.Owens | 7 | 47 | 763 | 16.2 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 32 |
| P.Crayton | 11 | 22 | 341 | 15.5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| J.Witten | 16 | 66 | 757 | 11.5 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 40 |
| TOTAL | 50 | 197 | 2997 | 15.2 | 21 | 41 | 12 | 136 |
The first thing that jumps out is that with 14 more games the Redskins rated only one more touchdown. The differences between the other numbers seem inconsequential - 41 receptions (avg 3 per player), 551 yards (avg 39 yards per player). Remember - Terrell Owens missed over half of the season and Crayton over a quarter.
Assume an entire season
Let’s extrapolate Owens’ and Crayton’s numbers out to a full 16 games. Now, some may say that this would not be fair because we don’t know what they would do over a full season. What I’m trying to do is estimate a full season based on what the player was doing at the time. Given that, here are the numbers:
| Washington | Games | Nbr | Yards | Avg | TDs | 20+ | 40+ | 1st Dn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Moss | 16 | 84 | 1483 | 17.7 | 9 | 24 | 10 | 60 |
| B.Lloyd | 16 | 48 | 799 | 15.3 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 34 |
| A.RandleEl | 16 | 35 | 558 | 15.9 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 23 |
| C.Cooley | 16 | 71 | 774 | 10.9 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 44 |
| TOTAL | 64 | 238 | 3548 | 14.9 | 22 | 49 | 16 | 161 |
vs.
| Dallas | Games | Nbr | Yards | Avg | TDs | 20+ | 40+ | 1st Dn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Glenn | 16 | 62 | 1136 | 18.3 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 49 |
| T.Owens | 16 | 107 | 1744 | 16.2 | 14 | 23 | 9 | 32 |
| P.Crayton | 16 | 32 | 496 | 15.5 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 15 |
| J.Witten | 16 | 66 | 757 | 11.5 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 40 |
| TOTAL | 64 | 267 | 4133 | 15.5 | 30 | 57 | 17 | 184 |
As you can see the Cowboys now lead every category on the board.
Per Game Average
Because some may not like the assumption that the players would have continued to perform at a consistent level, let’s look at the numbers that each has and come up with a game average:
| Washington | Nbr | Yards | Avg | TDs | 20+ | 40+ | 1st Dn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Moss | 5 | 93 | 18.6 | .6 | 1.5 | .63 | 3.8 |
| B.Lloyd | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | .3 | .6 | .18 | 2.1 |
| A.RandleEl | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | .1 | .6 | .18 | 1.4 |
| C.Cooley | 4 | 48 | 12.0 | .4 | .4 | 0 | 2.8 |
| TOTAL | 14 | 222 | 15.9 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 1 | 10.1 |
vs.
| Dallas | Nbr | Yards | Avg | TDs | 20+ | 40+ | 1st Dn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Glenn | 4 | 71 | 17.8 | .4 | 2.6 | .39 | 3.1 |
| T.Owens | 7 | 109 | 15.6 | .4 | 1.7 | .40 | 1.4 |
| P.Crayton | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | .1 | 3.0 | .17 | 4.6 |
| J.Witten | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | .5 | 1.2 | 0 | 2.5 |
| TOTAL | 17 | 258 | 15.2 | 1.4 | 8.5 | .96 | 11.5 |
Here, the Cowboys are within hundredths of a point on the 40-plus receptions and .7 yards fewer per catch. With the exception of touchdowns, where they two teams tie, they lead in all other categories, including first downs and over a 2-to-1 ration of receptions 20-plus yards.
Looking at these numbers, one can see that, if anything, the Cowboys receiving corps have better numbers that what the Redskins have. My guess is that the crew were also taking into account pass blocking and how poorly the Cowboys did last year after Flozell Adams was lost to injury.
What do you think?