Some final observations from the 49ers game:
Two teams in search of an identity square off this Sunday when Dallas travels to Oakland. Though Dallas is 2-1, it could easily be 3-0 or 0-3. It’s inconsistent pass defense has forced the more experienced offense to carry the team and thus far it has. On the other side of the field an 0-3 Raiders squad has been crippled itself with foolish penalties and a failure to execute at key moments of the game. With a little more grit and a bit of luck, Oakland could be 3-0.
When Oakland Has the Ball
Kerry Collins is the fantasy football equivalent of the Stay-Puffed Marshmallow Man. He gets great statistics. He makes big plays. His QB ratings are fine. But his numbers show no ability, at least this year, to translate into wins. That’s because Collins is one of the streakiest QBs around. His three starts have all followed the same pattern. He starts hot, with two TDs on opening drives. In the other game, he found the end zone on his second drive. But Collins then seems to fall asleep in the middle of games. Against the Patriots, he started 4-for-4 and a TD. He then was only 7 of 23 in the middle two quarters. Sure, one of them was a 73 yard bomb to Randy Moss, but he left his defense on the field and by the time he cranked it up again late, he was trailing 30 to 14.
Against Kansas City, he was 6 of 7 and put seven on the board before he struggled. Last week was the most streaky performance yet. Four straight and a TD on the opening drive, followed by 8 straight incompletions. Then four straight completions. Then six of seven missed… He got hot late and led the Raiders to a tying score, but his erratic play has to be driving Norv Turner crazy.
The key to slowing Collins down is to keep him guessing. The Eagles regularly stacked the line of scrimmage at the snap of the ball, but frequently dropped seven men into coverage. Collins was never sure whether he was going to be blitzed or baited into quick throws into zones and he could not regain his early rhythm until late. The Dallas rush has been inconsistent, in part because Mike Zimmer has so many young players who are still thinking first and running second. The fear of mental mistakes has taken some of the edge off the Dallas blitz. There have been few stunts because the risk of getting out of position and giving up the big play is probably greater than the chance that the rookies will make a play.
Mike Zimmer knows that he cannot play it safe against Collins or his big weapon Randy Moss. Last year, Zimmer played a soft zone against Moss’ Vikings and suffered a slow death. Minnesota was happy to take the yards the Cowboys corners were conceding, all the way to the end zone. Terence Newman was especially distressed by the passive scheme; he plays much better in press coverage and will get his chances against Moss. Newman has been the rock of the secondary thus far; he has not made as many big plays as new cornermate Anthony Henry, but has also conceded fewer of them.
Henry comes off a horrid performance against the 49ers, where he was burned by second year man Brandon Lloyd. Henry was acquired to face off against big receivers and he’ll get his shots against Moss as well.
The question is how much support do you offer the corners? The Eagles never let Moss leave the line single covered. FS Brian Dawkins offered help on almost every play. In the second quarter, DC Jim Johnson paid Moss the ultimate complement; facing a second and short near midfield, Oakland called a deep pass to Moss out of a short yardage formation. It was a one man route, with all the other Raiders faking a line plunge. The Eagles didn’t fall for the fake and had bothcorners, Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown bracketing Moss. That’s respect.
The Cowboys have played strictly positional packages thus far, with Newman lining up at LC and Henry at RC in base formations, with Aaron Glenn playing LC and Newman lining up in the slot when Dallas goes to nickel. I think they’ll change up this week and have one of the starters, probably Newman, cover Moss across the field. Washington got a major mismatch when it lined Santana Moss against the aging Glenn. If Parcells and Zimmer sit back and let Norv Turner match up the 6′5″ Moss against the 5′9″ Glenn, they have nobody but themselves to blame for the outcome.
Another question is which team will win the ground battle? The Cowboys did an effective job of containing LaDainian Tomlinson and Clinton Portis in the first two games, but leaked rushing yards like a sieve last week against the 49ers. Conversely, the Raiders have been criticized for underusing new running back Lamont Jordan. Jordan flashed some big play ability against the Chiefs, but has yet to get a 20 carry game or top 80 yards in a game. Last week the Eagles shut him down completely, allowing Jordan just 19 yards on 16 carries.
Zimmer will probably keep SS Roy Williams close to the line a lot this week, to prevent Jordan from breaking out and to help in blitzes against Collins. He cannot get carried away, however, as doing so will leave only the shaky Keith Davis in deep coverage. Look for Dallas to roll the dice more on blitzes and stunts, in the hope that they can get to Collins before he finds Moss or Jerry Porter.
Keep an eye on young TE Courtney Anderson. With Dawkins occupied by Moss, the second year man from San Diego State made some big plays against the Eagles’ linebackers. He’ll likely get similar matchups this week against the Dallas backers.
When Dallas Has the Ball
When Drew Bledsoe takes the offense on the field, he’ll see a defense similar to his own. One with some playmakers and some inexperience. A defense with linebackes and safeties who are suspect in coverage. The primary difference is that the Cowboys have made plays to negate their mistakes. The Raiders are desperate for playmakers. Through three games, the Raiders have just two sacks and one interception. Dallas, in contrast, has nine sacks and five INTs.
The Cowboys will likely stick with their ball control philosophy, because it has worked. Bledsoe has led seven TD drives this year longer than 70 yards. Establishing the run has been an early objective, though Dallas might defer the run a little this week. Last week the Eagles opened with an 18 to 4 pass/run ratio. Chasing the QB tired out Oakland’s 300+ lb. tackles Ted Washington and Warren Sapp, who are not in the best of shape. Later in the half Andy Reid turned Brian Westbrook loose and he posted some big runs. This isn’t the Cowboys’ style, but passing to run could work again. The key matchup will come in the middle, where C Al Johnson squares off against the mammoth Washington. Johnson has struggled getting a push against big tackles, but has gotten the nod over Andre Gurode because he’s better in pass protection and makes fewer mental mistakes.
The real damage was done by the Eagles’ tight ends and running backs against the invisible Raiders’ linebackers and safeties. TE’s LJ Smith, Chad Lewis and RB Westbrook amassed an incredible 260 yards receiving against the core of Oakland’s pass defense. The open middle should have Jason Witten salivating. Witten finally had a big half against the 49ers before he was assigned double coverage. The Raiders are thinner than the 49ers and will pay a price if they devote too much coverage to Witten.
Look for Dallas to run a lot of two TE sets and a base three WR, one RB, one TE set, with Patrick Crayton in the slot and Witten split wide off the line opposite him. This will put both Crayton and Witten in space against Oakland defenders and create the opportunities for big gains.
Another key will be the ability to pass to the backs. Julius Jones got a long gain on a pass last week but is still primarily a blocker or a check down option. The coaches have talked about throwing more to Jones and this could be a good week to experiment. The Eagles got their offense going when they split Westbrook wide and let him outrun Raiders safeties.
Whether its with Crayton, Witten or Jones, expect Dallas to paint a target on Raiders’ safety Derrick Gibson. Gibson has struggled in coverage, to put it politely. Last week he took two holding penalties to prevent being burned. In the third quarter, Philly got Westbrook wide on Gibson and completed a 62 yard pass. Later, Westbrook torched Gibson for a 38 yard gain.
Gibson is having every bit as much trouble as Keith Davis, perhaps more. Don’t think the Cowboys will go easy on him.
Special Teams
Both teams enter the game with major issues. Dallas has just changed long snappers, releasing Jon Condo. Condo developed the yips and almost got kicker Jose Cortez killed last week. The Raiders continue to suffer kicker Sebastian Janikowski, who has already missed four field goals this year. He missed two midrange kicks last week that could have won the game.
Prediction: Bill Parcells likes to say you are what your record says you are. I’m going to take him at his word. Right now, his Cowboys are a moody team that runs hot on offense and cold on defense, with just enough big defensive plays mixed in to keep the win/loss ledger in the black.
The Raiders, on the other hand, are becoming comfortable with losing. If they were merely victims of bad luck, they would be no worse than 1-2 or perhaps even 2-1. But they’ve been consistent in their mistakes, which is why they’re still looking for a win. Sebastian Janikowski has consistently missed field goals. Kerry Collins has been consistently streaky. The defense has been consistent in extending opponents’ drives with penalties. Etc., etc., etc.
I can almost guarantee that the Collins will start hot and get the Raiders and early TD. He has in all of their games. I can also predict with some certainty that sometime in the middle of the game he’ll hit Randy Moss for a deep score. He’s done that in two of their games. In addition, the Cowboys have allowed a bomb in each of their last two games. Oakland will move the ball. The Raiders will score points.
But we can also be fairly certain that they’ll bog down, commit silly penalties, take sacks at the wrong time of the game and hand Dallas a turnover or two. Dallas has been good, most of the time, at making the big plays. Oakland has been even more consistent at giving them up. I’ve gone back and forth on this all week, but I’m playing the most consistent streak, which is Oakland’s losing one.
Dallas 27, Oakland 24
Pile Drives the Nickel D
Look for more of the revamped nickel scheme the Cowboys ran at the end of the first half Sunday. According to the Dallas Morning News Willie Pile has replaced Keith Davis as a safety in that package. This will allow Davis more time on special teams, where he has helped the coverage units make an impressive and necessary improvement over their shaky play against the Chargers.
The change will also allow Davis more time to concentrate on his coverage duties in the base schemes. Bill Parcells had to send chills through the faithful when he stated that Davis didn’t even realize he made a mistake on Brandon Lloyd’s 89 yard bomb.
Shaky But Healthy
The Cowboys have many problems but so far bad health is not one of them. That could benefit them as the marathon that is the regular season is taking a toll on several preseason favorites. The Patriots lost FS Rodney Harrison and OT Matt Light for the season this past weekend. The Broncos are holding their breath that CB Champ Bailey’s injured hamstring won’t keep him out too long. He’s already playing with a separated shoulder. The Jets are weighing the news that QB Chad Pennington might miss another season. He injured his rotator cuff just one year after having it surgically repaired. The sports surgeon James Andrews says the injury is not career threatening, but Pennington’s frequent injuries have the New York press proclaiming the Jets players in the Matt Leinart sweepstakes.
The injury that could most affect Dallas is the sports hernia afflicting Donovan McNabb. The Eagles doctors say the hernia will require surgery at some point but that McNabb can continue playing with it if he can handle the pain. McNabb returned from a scary leg injury a couple of years ago, so there is no doubting his toughness. But anyone who watched him play against the Raiders knows that the hernia is compromising his game. He’s not the running threat he normally is. The injury also affected McNabb’s accuracy, as he often over or underthrew open receivers. He’s still Donovan McNabb, but he might not be Donovan McNabb.
It’s the Bucs, Stupid
A few weeks ago, I pointed out that the past five seasons have seen an average of four teams league-wide make the jump from 7-9 or worse to the playoffs. My picks in the NFC were the Cowboys, Panthers and Cardinals. The Cowboys and Panthers are still in the running, but the Cards look — again — like a massive flop. The surprise so far has to be Tampa Bay. The Bucs had one of the most rickety looking o-lines in the conference during the preseason, but they’ve been outstanding so far. Tampa has also hit the jackpot in the draft’s first round the last two years. In ‘04 they wanted a receiver. Tampa watched Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams and Lee Evans fly off the board before it landed LSU’s Michael Clayton with the 14th pick. Clayton has been the best of the bunch so far, showing so much promise that K.C. Joyner already speaks of his Hall of Fame ability.
This year, the Bucs needed a runner. They again had to wait their turn, as Miami took Ronnie Brown and Chicago took Cedric Benson ahead of them. But once again, their guy is the class of the class. Cadillac Williams has three 100 yard games in his three game NFL career and Tampa suddenly has a balanced, explosive and young offense. DC Monte Kiffin has overcome the loss of Warren Sapp and John Lynch. In the watered down NFC, Tampa could have a fast track to the playoffs.
Assistant Excellence
The Dolphins were another team forecast to have a poor offensive line. Many observers felt the Dolphins had the worst unit in the NFL the past couple of years. Now, without major changes, Miami is 2-1 and had a 132 yard performance from Ronnie Brown this past week in its win over Carolina. For all the offseason changes new HC Nick Saban made, his most important acquistion was probably o-line coach Hudson Houck. The former Cowboys’ assistant has become something of a miracle worker lately. He joined Marty Schottenheimer’s Chargers staff after leaving Dallas and turned that talent-poor unit around in short order. Their rapid turnaround was one reason San Diego zoomed to 12-4 last year. Now he’s making magic in Miami. O-line coaches used to work in anonymity. Today, they are considered as important as first round draft picks and get paid like them too. Hudson Houck shows us why.
Sundry Observations
Did anybody else notice the roars everytime the Cowboys made a play yesterday? I’d like to hear from anybody who was at the game. How blue were the stands?
Okay, here’s the earliest prediction for the Cowboys’ first round pick next April. You can thank me now for getting it out of the way so early. 
LB Bobby Carpenter, 6′3″, 255 lbs., Ohio St.
He’s the son of former Oilers and Giants RB Rob Carpenter. He’s huge. He plays special teams. He gets reps once and a while as DE. He can run. He’s the ideal bookend to Demarcus Ware, and lets Kevin Burnett move inside permanently.
After three weeks, a personality is starting to emerge for the ‘05 Cowboys. So stock up on your tylenol. Keep you ice bags handy. Load up on your spirits of choice — well before the game starts. Save some for the post game too. From all evidence, you’re going to need it. Keep your rosary beads within reach. For better or worse, here come the Cardiac Cowboys.
Bill Parcells’ guys lived up to the big plays of week one, outscoring the 49ers 15-0 in the fourth quarter to seize a 34-31 win. In doing so, they put the 0-14 letdown of last week’s fourth quarter behind them, at least until they face the Raiders. What remains to be seen is whether this is the end of a bad streak, or the next phase in the on-again-off-again play that charactizes young teams going through philosophical changes.
One sign that indicates the former was the leadership exhibited by veterans who had forgettable first halves. Leading the way was Drew Bledsoe, who mixed a second quarter TD pass to Jason Witten and a TD run of his own with his first INT of the season, which was returned by 49ers safefy Tony Parrish for a score. In the second half, Bledsoe was a white-hot 15 of 21 for 202 yards. He was picked again by Parrish, but got a TD of his own and a key two point pass to Keyshawn Johnson on a dubious call by the officials.
Joining Bledsoe were Terry Glenn, who had 108 second half receiving yards and a key 58 yard reception on the last play of the third quarter, when the Cowboys were staggering; Dat Nguyen, whose linebacking corps was slow reacting on running plays and shaky in tackling when they did, who plucked an Arnaz Battle fumble off the ground and sealed the game with an interception in the final minute; and Terence Newman, who tipped the ball that Nguyen intercepted. He and corner mate Anthony Henry had by far their worst games of the season.
The game, which resembled a Tom Landry era-shootout, had Bill Parcells doing his worst Bad-Tom impersonation. In the third quarter, after two Dallas stops and a touchdown had pulled the Cowboys to within 24 to 19, Parcells inexplicably called for a line plunge out of a punt set on 4th-and-one from the Dallas 34. The play, which failed miserably, evoked the failed 4th-and-one in your own zone “No, Danny, No!” call that sent Dallas to defeat against the Redskins in ‘83. Parcells should be credited for motivating his team to a comeback, but he should also thank them for overcoming his mental freeze.
Notes:
Knucklehead sandwich: it has been a half full of assclown mistakes. And you can’t blame the kids completely. Julius Jones fumbles. LaRoi Glover takes two dumb penalties. John Condo rolls the extra point back to the holder. Bradie James looks like Curly Howard. Anthony Henry is missing tackles. With that, a stop at the end of the half gives you something to take to the locker room.
When Dallas went into it’s nickel late in the half, it had Roy Williams up in the slot with Willie Pile playing deep centerfield. Davis was on the sideline. I’ll have to review the tape, but Williams may have been playing LB with Pile and Jacques Reeves manning the deep halves. Now that’s an adjustment.
There are some interesting matchups to watch. The Eagles play the Raiders, which should give us a sense of Oakland’s and Philadelphia’s relative strengths. List other interesting things you see.
This was a game that used to make the league come to a stop. Today is finds two down on their luck franchises trying to regain respect. The Cowboys appear farther ahead in their quest, though the last minutes meltdown against the Redskins last week must smart. The 49ers have seemingly been in a rebuilding mode forever, or at least since Terrell Owens caught a last second pass to beat the Packers in a playoff game — way back in 1998.
The salary cap was the undoing of both franchises, who entered the cap era as the league’s class. Both overspent heavily in an attempt to outlast the other, and found their finanacial flexibility gone by the end of the decade. Dallas has recovered from its drunken spending days. The Niners are still trying to figure out what went wrong. Though the luster is gone, both teams will still enjoy beating the other.
When the 49ers Have the Ball
They’re the 31st rated offense in the league. They have not been able to run. They can only sporadically pass. Their pass protection has been so-so and their quarterback situation is unsettled. They lost their only recent offensive Pro Bowler this week when TE Eric Johnson was placed on injured reserve. Yet the 49ers are 1-1.
That’s because they have been able to maximize their few moments of inspiration. They’ve been awful for seven of the eight quarters they’ve played this year, but for fifteen minutes late in the second quarter and early in the third quarter of their season opener, the 49ers found a rhythm. In that span, they ran their three and only TD drives of the year. A 75 yard punt return for a score in that same span gave the 49ers a 28 -9 lead that held up for a 28-25 win.
Dallas knows first hand how an unexpected offensive explosion can ruin your day. The defense had Washington bottled up for 56 minutes last week and seemingly had the Redskins headed to a touchdown-free opening two games. But Washington found its own rhythm and, like the 49ers the week before, left their opponents feeling robbed.
The key for the Dallas defense will be early pressure. The 49ers have been slow starters in both games. Last week, the Niners produced just one first half first down. Step one will be maintaining the lid the league has put on the San Francisco running game. The Niners have been rotating RBs Kevin Barlow and Frank Gore, but neither has been able to produce consistent yardage. The new Cowboys 3-4 has been effective at slowing marquee runners LaDainian Tomlimson and Clinton Portis and should be able to keep the Niners backs under control.
The second task will be supplying pressure on Niners QB Tim Rattay. The blitz packages that stuttered against the Chargers on opening day were more successful early against Washington, producing six sacks. The Niners have been respectable at protecting Rattay, allowing three against the Rams and two in Philadelphia. However, the raw stats are misleading. One reason the QBs have been sacked so little is that they’ve been on the field so little; the 49ers average just over 21 minutes per game in time of possession. They are the early masters of the three and out and if Dallas can pressure Rattay into incompletions, sacks may be luxuries.
The third task for the defense is preventing one of the young WR duo of Brandon Lloyd and Arzaz Battle from breaking out. Lloyd has been the closest thing the Niners have to a go-to guy. Battle has been used as a multiple threat — against the Rams, the former Notre Dame QB threw three passes. The novelty apparently wore off against the Eagles, as he was limited to catching the ball. Look for more press coverage from the Dallas base package of corners Anthony Henry and Terence Newman. This may be the week a team begins to zero in on Newman and move their focus away from Henry, who has been stellar so far.
Don’t be surprised if the 49ers try some plays from the Redskins’ playbook and try to isolate receivers against Cowboys nickel LC Aaron Glenn. Glenn plays outside when Dallas is in nickel and he was on the opposite end of both long TD bombs to Santana Moss last week.
When Dallas Has the Ball
The slow, tedious pace of last week has many fans clamoring for the Cowboys to open up the playbook. I’m not convinced they will. The key to beating the 49ers thus far has been ball control. The Rams ran 89 plays to the Niners’ 41, had a 405 to 217 edge in yards and a whopping 39:23 to 20:37 edge in time of possession. The Eagles were even better, outgaining the Niners 583 to 142 and keeping the ball for 37:57 to San Fran’s 22:03.
Ball control has been the aim of Dallas this year. So expect more of the same — look for Julius Jones to get the ball a lot on first and second downs, as the Cowboys try to improve on their decent, but hardly-great running numbers from the first two weeks. Jones has some runs of more than 10 yards, but none of more than 20 so far. He may get some against the Niners’ new 3-4 scheme.
Patience will also be the buzzword when Dallas throws the ball. With a new scheme being installed, and with a rickety secondary — San Francisco had one of the worst secondaries in the league last year, in part because of injuries — the Niners are playing many bend-but-don’t -break coverages. The Rams were able to get a lot of seven, eight, nine, fourteen, fifteen and sixteen yard receptions. What the Niners were able to prevent in week one was the deep pass. Look for the Niners to play lots of soft zones on the Dallas side of the 50 and on their side of midfield.
The change in philosophy comes when a team gets inside the San Francisco red zone. A team that concedes yards between the 20s gets aggressive when backed up. This is how the Niners were able to beat the Rams, even through they were outgained and outpossessed so badly. The Niners not only got seven sacks, but they got them at opportune times. Three times the Rams got inside the San Francisco fifteen yard line, only to see Marc Bulger sacked in those situations. The Rams had to settle for four field goals, three of them very short, and this was the margin. The 49ers were even able to beat back an Eagles drive inside their own five last week, sacking Donovan McNabb and forcing a turnover.
Patient has been the hallmark of Dallas’ passing game thus far. Drew Bledsoe is the top rated NFC QB thus far because of his high completion percentage and no interceptions. He’s been very effective in the intermediate routes, using Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn and Patrick Crayton to great effect. TE Jason Witten on the other hand has been nearly invisible, catching only two passes. This is the result of regular double coverage. Look for Dallas to stick with this philosophy of working the middle of the field. It’s something Bledsoe does well, and it’s something the Niners are poor at stopping.
If Dallas does take some deep shots, look for a replay of what the Eagles did to the Niners last week. Philadelphia was able to spread the field and get Terrell Owens one on one against Niners corners. He caught a 68 yard TD on Philly’s first series and another long pass late in the half. Dallas caught the Redskins Sean Taylor with a flea flicker in the third quarter that resulted in a 70 yard TD to Terry Glenn. Dallas might not resort to trickery again, but their tendencies will remain the same; look for some deep passes early in drive when Dallas is outside its own 30. Look for Dallas to be equal opportunity attackers. LC Mike Rumph has been a disappointment and RC Ahmed Plummer gets as much action as any NFL CB.
A key to the passing attack will be keeping Bledsoe clean. One bright light from the Washington game was the pass protection. The offensive line did not allow a sack and did not permit Bledsoe to be hit often. In his midweek press conference, Bill Parcells remarked that the line, Andre Gurode aside, was flawless in its calls and adjustments. The 49ers they will have to account for are RE Bryant Young and OLB Julian Peterson. Young is a wily old vet who had four sacks against the Rams. Peterson is an athletic OLB who was probably the most versatile defensive player in the league before he injured an Achilles tendon two years ago. In a game at Texas Stadium a few years ago, Peterson sometimes lined up over receivers in the slot and covered them effectively. The Niners will move him around to try to find favorable rush matchups. If they find some, he will be able to mouth off as he has to the press all week.
Special teams
Dallas improved its coverage play last week, reducing one major concern from week one. The addition of Keith Davis to the cover teams had an immediate effect. Another positive change was the inclusion of Tyson Thompson, who showed great explosiveness on kick returns.
Prediction: There are not many games on the Cowboys schedule that look like solid wins. This is one of them. The Cowboys are a better team right now than the 49ers, who are only two games into the Mike Nolan regime. Don’t look for anything crazy. Expect the Cowboys to keep to the philosophies they’ve established so far, but to try and execute them better. Dallas 24, San Francisco 13
Longtime regular Cowboy Bert offers a calmer perspective after the Redskins’ loss:
Times were dark for the team. After a couple of years near the top of the league, the media had split in their opinions of them. The team drew intense national media attention, not all of it kind. Some, clearly rooting for the young upstarts and their coach, had predicted greatness sooner rather than later. Others, clearly not enamored with the teams’ stars and coaching, almost openly rooted for their failure.
Against this background, the team seemed to slide backwards a step or two. Other coaches and teams had caught up with their schemes, it seemed. The coach, once deemed brilliant by the media, was now seen to have feet of clay. His play calling was suspect, predictable, unimaginative, and conservative. The game was passing him by. The players were overrated. The defense could no longer stop teams when it mattered. They were starting to lose some of the kinds of games they used to win. Some fans were getting disheartened, and the league was ready to put the team behind them and forget about them, like a bad dream.
The team came into the season filled with questions. Inexperienced players, and players at the ends of their careers obtained from other teams, along with a few remaining overworked team veterans, many of whom were also getting older. The media thought they had taken a step backward, talent wise. Everyone understood they would have to win at least 10 games to make the playoffs, but the team stumbled out of the gate, losing winnable games and making what should have been easy wins look difficult.
In week 9, already almost out of contention for a playoff berth at 5-3, they faced what conventional wisdom understood to be a must-win home game, against a division opponent they had dominated for several years, incredibly enough on Monday Night Football. The opponent had a few good players, but seemed out-manned. This was where the team could show what they had!
Inexplicably, they lost, not a close game, but 38-0, the worst team loss in recent memory. They were in disarray, looking completely inept on both sides of the ball. The coach could no longer coach. The team was unprepared. The players couldn’t play. They could neither make a first down, nor stop the other team’s attack. The first shovels full of dirt were already on the grave in which they had just buried their season. The team would never be great, and the coach…
Then, an interesting thing happened. From the 5-4 start the wins began. Taking each game individually, the team started winning, close game after close game, then comfortably, against all comers, at home and on the road. They finished 10-4, and continued their run into the playoffs, while the team that had beaten them 38-0 finished an also-ran yet again. They were led by the defense, which at halftime of the next week’s game began a streak of 24 consecutive quarters without allowing a touchdown.
That team in disarray, the 1970 Cowboys, lost the Super Bowl on a last second field goal, before winning it all the following year. The St. Louis Cardinals, who beat them convincingly in that 38-0 pasting, made the playoffs in later seasons, but never got past the first round. That Cowboy team speaks to the truth that it matters less how the year starts than how it ends, that sometimes overcoming painful and embarrassing losses is what teams require, and that giving up on a season after a painful loss is something in which no fan should indulge, and which no team can afford. The good days may be just around the corner.
Because I’m going to grit my teeth and go back and watch the Redskins tape again real soon. Really, I am………
First the folks on the blog get on Roy Williams’ case. Now, the national media is piling on.
Bring on the ‘49ers.
It was a hot and humid night at Texas Stadium. Players were grabbing at their tight hamstrings almost from the opening kickoff. Assistant coaches looked wet and distressed on the sidelines, as if they had stepped out of a sauna bath. The ball was slippery and it led to many incompletions and fumbles. And on this night where nobody or anything seemed comfortable, the Cowboys let the game slip away from them, as Washington scored two TDs in the last 3:55, turning a shaky 13-0 lead into a 14-13 loss.
The loss was a team effort. Here are some low points from an incredible litany of Cowboys’ miscues in the final minutes:
Notes:
Bring some points.
Have at it.
The press is reporting that contractors and other “support” are amassing in Louisiana to “aid” in the lucrative post-Katrina reconstruction. Some are legitimate and well-intentioned. Others are looking for a quick and sleazy buck. And while we cannot tell whom is whom in this support soup there are two groups we can list with certainty as Katrina-profiteers: the NFL and the New York Giants.
How else to explain why tonight’s Saints/Giants tilt is in New York? The game was originally scheduled for the Superdome, but was allegedly moved to support the NFL’s fundraising weekend. Oh sure, the league is claiming that the Saints are the home team and the league will clot Giants’ Stadium with Saints paraphernalia. But this game doesn’t pass the smell test. It’s in Giants stadium, after all. The Saints players didn’t want to go to New York. San Antonio, which will host three of New Orleans’ home games, offered the Alamodome for all eight home games and ended up getting an odd split with Baton Rouge, where LSU’s stadium will host four games. In fact, San Antonio guaranteed sellouts for all of the Saints games.
The league can claim that moving the game to Monday night would highlight the plight of people in the Gulf reason. And yes, it will enhance the mini-telethon being held at halftime of both games. But couldn’t the NFL accomplish the same thing if the game were in San Antonio? The ESPN folks hosting the telethon are not going to be in the stadium, so why does the game have to be in the same metropolitan area? An argument could be made that this improves TV ratings, but again, conditions would be the same if the game were in the Northeast or the Southwest.
The only sure result is that the Giants are getting an extra home game, at the expense of an already overburdened team. Commissioner Paul Tagliabue tried to address the Saints before their opener in Charlotte last week. They turned him down, preferring to listen to N.O. Mayor Ray Nagin. I think this is an ideal time to invite Tagliabue in. Now, however, he should be forced to answer the Saints’ questions, not to pontificate on the “support” the league is giving them.
The old rivals renew acquaintances this Monday when Joe Gibbs brings Washington to Texas Stadium. Both teams are coming off opening day victories and look for a leg up in an important early divisional game.
When the Redskins Have the Ball
We are about to see two teams that tactically are offensive mirror images of each other. Washington runs the one-back, two TE offense almost exclusively on early downs, switching to multiple receiver sets on passing downs. The devotion to one back is no surprise — Gibbs helped devise the scheme when he was the RB coach for Don Coryell at San Diego in the late ’70s.
Chuck Muncie was the plowhorse then and today Clinton Portis is Gibbs’ guy. The name of the game for Washington will be ball control. With the QB position in disarray (Washingon switched from Patrick Ramsey to aging vet Mark Brunell mid-game against Chicago and announced that this week that Brunell is the starter) the Redskins will hope for a repeat of last week’s game plan.
The Redskins ran up a 34:15 to 25:45 edge in time of possession by rotating Portis and big backup Ladell Betts. Betts got 12 carries, an impressive number for a backup. But it was Portis who really made things go, racking up 121 yards on 21 carries, a whopping 5.8 yards per attempt. Portis’ long run was 41 yards, which means he still averaged 4.0 yards for the remaining 20 plays.
Look for Washington to run left and attack the right side of the Dallas front. The Cowboys did an admirable job of containing LaDainian Tomlinson in last week’s win over San Diego. However, they had trouble stopping counter plays run at DE Greg Ellis and rookie OLB Demarcus Ware. Ware was frequently hooked inside by Chargers tight ends and fullbacks and if he does not improve his technique, he’ll find Washington attacking him as well. On the other side of the ball, Washington’s strength is on its left side, where LT Chris Samuels and LG Derrick Dockery reside. The Redskins’ left side is much larger than its right side, so watch for the Redskins to open as the Chargers did, with several attempts with Washington’s signature counter-trey left, until Dallas proves it can stop it.
Look for Dallas to counter with lots of eight man fronts, with Roy Williams offering lots of run support.
When the Redskins pass, the plan is simple — stop Santana Moss. The speedster is the lone deep threat, pulling in a 52 yard bomb last week. The diminuative Moss should find the going a bit tougher this week against the Cowboys’ corners. Both Terence Newman and Anthony Henry are bigger than him and will probably engage in some aggressive man-to-man coverage. Both were victimized by the crafty Keenan McCardell last week, but the corners showed, one play aside, that they were not going to allow anything deep.
The Chargers challenged Henry more than Newman and paid for it. Henry defensed five passes and picked one. He let another slide through his fingers on the last drive. His game closed off the outside; all the completions, with the exception of an 8 yard out on the Chargers opening play were on patterns in the middle of the field. Henry caused some heart palpitations when he permitted a 32 yard post to Eric Parker on a 4th-and-14 play. Henry claimed he temporarily lost sight of the ball in the sun and his play the rest of the game bears this out. San Diego challenged him deep repeatedly but could never get an edge.
The Redskins may have more success targeting Newman. He was equally as effective as Henry in preventing the deep pass, but had some problems on intermediate routes. The Chargers ran a lot of combination routes at him and he excelled at taking away the deep options. However, he was burned a couple of times underneath and missed two tackles that turned 9 yard gains into 16 yard gains. I have confidence Newman can stay with Moss down the field, but if he whiffs on the speedy Moss on a short 7 to 9 yard route the result would be the same as a bomb.
The more likely option for the Redskins is to attack the middle of the field. Their second best passing weapon is TE Chris Cooley and he could have matchup advantages against the Cowboys’ inside linebackers and free safety Keith Davis. Davis was shaky, allowing two TDs to McCardell. The Cowboys linebackers were also targets of the Chargers receivers; San Diego frequently went three wide and threw to the slot receivers who were matched up against Dat Nguyen and Bradie James.
Washington will get such matchups because Dallas is stubborn about its defensive packages. Against the Chargers it went 3-4 about 85 percent of the game and spent of the rest of it in a 4-2-5 nickel set. One advantage the Cowboys should derive from the Redskins’ QB change is that Brunell now seems to be a blinkered QB who bails early on his primary options. Last year, Brunell had a reputation of a guy who felt the rush too soon and bailed on plays.
Last week, the Bears blitzed the Redskins heavily on passing plays. Starter Patrick Ramsey stood in against the pressure, getting 105 yards in 11 attempts, a gaudy 9.5 yard average per attempt. Ramsey was yanked because he was reckless with the ball, throwing an interception and fumbling twice. When Brunell came into the game, he averaged only 70 yards on 14 attempts, a miserable 5.0 yards per attempt. This means that Brunell was very quick to respond to pressure by dumping the ball off to his short option.
Expect the Cowboys to dial up their ratio of blitzes. Against San Diego, DC Mike Zimmer started slowly, rushing 4 men on 1st and second downs and bringing a fifth rusher on third downs. In the middle of the game, Zimmer increased the instances of five man rushes to an almost equal mix with four man plays. In the fourth quarter, he brought the house, bringing six men twice and the full seven man blitz on three occassions. He did this three times on the final Chargers drive.
What’s more, the Cowboys almost never ran twists or stunts. The rushers would come in assigned lanes, and try to beat the protection by overloading a side. One of the few times a twist was used, LaRoi Glover sacked Drew Brees to end a Chargers’ fourth quarter series. I anticipate a lot more games from the Cowboys’ rush, as Brunell is not as crafty as Brees or as patient.
When the Cowboys blitz, they need to work out their recognition and reaction to draw plays. Four times last week the Chargers converted situations of third and more than six yards by handing the ball to Tomlinson. All of the plays were run left, at Ware. Joe Gibbs has to know Brunell is skittish against maximum pressure and would enjoy running the draw as successfully as San Diego did.
When the Cowboys Have the Ball
I mentioned last week that much of the Cowboys passing game is cribbed from versions of the so called “West Coast Offense.” However, much of the Dallas running game, and much of what Dallas will try to do with the ball, is based on schemes cribbed from Gibbs. The Cowboys love to run Julius Jones out of one-back, two-tight-end sets. The Cowboys are much more willing than Washington to line up their H-backs in the backfield to serve as lead blockers for Jones.
Against the Chargers, Dallas went with a patient, ball-control game that run almost two thirds of the time on first down. Expect more of the same this week. However, look for a difference in emphasis. Last week Dallas attacked the perimeter of the San Diego 3-4 front and ran away from NT Jamal Williams. Dallas challenged him from time to time but did not find regular room inside until the fourth quarter, after second C Andre Gurode had a chance to work on Williams and his stamina began to wane.
Look for Dallas to attack the inside of the Washington front. The Redskins have an active defense, with DTs Cornelius Griffin and Joe Salave’a and MLB Lemar Marshall. However, they lack size and depth. Former Cowboys DT Brandon Noble, a key to a DT rotation, will miss the game with injury. While the inside three are game, Griffin is the giant at 300 lbs. Marshall is only 227 lbs. You’ve all heard about Washington DC Gregg Williams’ love of the blitz on running and passing plays. But you can only be so effective if you’re being overmatched. The likely plan A for Dallas is to beat the blitz by beating it up on first and second downs with power running.
Blitzing also means lots of press coverage on the outside. The Redskins have a saavy veteran in Shawn Springs but they also have a green if talented rookie in Carlos Rogers. Look for Dallas to test Rogers early on, with double moves. He had a lot of trouble in the preseason with out and ups, stop and gos and other routes that played off his aggressiveness. Terry Glenn could be the beneficiary of Rogers’ inexperience.
Also look for Dallas to spread the field on early downs with a three WR set and try to exploit mismatches in the middle of the field. Last week San Diego bracketed TE Jason Witten and he had only one reception for 12 yards. However, in doing so, they provided single coverge for second year WR Patrick Crayton, who had a coming out party against the Chargers’ secondary. An aggressive defense like Washington’s will offer similar matchup problems. FS Sean Taylor faces a dilemma. Will he help with Crayton, who now commands respect, and leave Witten man to man? Or will he give Crayton free reign again over the middle of the field, where his slants, seams and crossing routes are so effective?
Another key for Dallas will be the shrewdness of Drew Bledsoe. Last week, Bledsoe was sacked four times. That should be taken as a good thing by Dallas fans, as he was unwilling to make desperate throws in crucial areas of the field and at critical times of the game. Bledsoe was sacked on his own 1 yard line early in the game. He took a sack right before the half. He was caught on a corner blitz near midfield that resulted in a fumble and he took a sack on a play that earned a roughing the passer penalty inside his own 20. While the sacks were negative plays, trying to throw at those times or in those positions would have risked game turning turnovers.
Bledsoe will face similar situations this week. The Redskins will bring people from every imaginable angle: off the corner. From the safeties. From the line. By overloading one side. Then the other. Bledsoe will again have to be willing to take the sack to avoid the turnover. He will get chances against this defense and if he executes as he did against the Chargers he will make big plays. Parcells is not keeping him on a short game plan. “Driving the bus” does not mean playing it safe for Bledsoe. It means playing it smart.
Special Teams
The coverage teams hurt Dallas badly, giving the Chargers two short fields for their two second half scoring drives. Keeping Brunell out of comfort zone is a must. Dallas could break him early if they put him on long fields and can pressure him. If he gets good field position and is not responsible for being their offensive focal point, it could be a long night.
Prediction: This is a similar team to the Chargers, with a smart offense and a smaller defense. Their pass defense is better than San Diego’s but their run defense is not as good. Patience on offense and smart special teams should produce a similar result in the second half. As long as the offense is not coughing up the ball, the defense should get some negative plays and perhaps from turnovers from Brunell. Dallas 23, Washingon 14
The Cowboys are not playing today. What do you see? Here’s what I can tell:
Week one has come and gone, and if we’re smart, we’ll forget about it. Really, the win over the Chargers was great, but does it really tell us how this week’s game(s) will go? Consider these four lines:
1994: week one: Dallas 26, Pittsburgh 9; week two: Dallas 20, Houston 17;
1995: week one: Dallas 35, New York 0; week two: Dallas 31, Denver 21;
1996: week one: Chicago 22, Dallas 6; week two: Dallas 27, New York 0;
1997: week one: Dallas 37, Pittsburgh 7; week two: Arizona 25, Dallas 22;
In none of those cases did the week one performance serve as a predictor for week two. In three cases Dallas won blowout openers. In two of these cases, they won close games the following week. In the last case, they lost. The one time the Cowboys suffered a humiliating defeat they bounced back with a blowout of their own.
This week will be different, for the Cowboys and the rest of the league. Teams had months to prepare for the opening games. Now, they will have a few days. And now, for the first time since last year, teams will have a true assessment of their respective strengths and weaknesses. Now is when we will learn which coaching staffs are up to it. Can they paper over the hole in their offensive line? Disguise a weakness in the secondary? Can they spot and exploit a weakness in another team the rest of us still can’t see?
A case study for this final point is the ‘97 Cowboys. They blew out the Steelers in Pittsburgh opening day. They raced out to an early lead the next week against the Cardinals and it appeared that the fallout from ‘96, the Michael Irvin suspension, the Leon Lett suspension and the false charge against Erik Williams were behind them. But midway through the second quarter, the Cardinals began to blitz the Cowboys up the middle. They quickly found out that new center Clay Shiver could not handle pressure directly in his face. They blitzed relentlessly the rest of the way and got a win. In the process they exposed a weakness that would plague Dallas the rest of the year.
This year’s team has some problems of its own. The coverage teams have been awful all summer and were even worse against the Chargers. Can the holes be patched in a week? Will Rob Petitti and the rest of the offensive line be able to manage whatever new blitzes Redskins DC Gregg Williams has in store for them? On the other side of the ball, can Dallas match the pressure that Chicago threw at the Washington QBs?
Nobody knows. I feel Dallas will win this Monday night because I think it has more talent. But I’m going to resist the temptation to say that a Dallas win over a good Chargers team plus a narrow Washington win over a bad Bears team equals a Cowboys bonanza.
Seeing a sluggish 14 -10 taffy pull of a win would not surprise me at all. In fact, nothing would surprise me. We’re about to learn who is really good and really bad — for the first time.
